Air Canada

TSX:AC Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$7.7b

Air Canada Valuation

Is AC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: AC (CA$27.58) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CA$81.44)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: AC is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AC?

Key metric: As AC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AC. This is calculated by dividing AC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18x
EarningsCA$430.00m
Market CapCA$7.71b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.5x
EIF Exchange Income
32.1x21.28%CA$6.6b
CHR Chorus Aviation
13.8x6.69%CA$666.6m
TFII TFI International
32.2x31.21%CA$14.9b
MTL Mullen Group
23.8x12.56%CA$2.5b
AC Air Canada
18x17.81%CA$7.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the peer average (25.5x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Airlines Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AC 18.0xIndustry Avg. 10.9xNo. of Companies8PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the Global Airlines industry average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18x
Fair PE Ratio19x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$27.58
CA$34.89
+26.49%
17.33%CA$45.00CA$18.40n/a14
Sep ’27CA$28.06
CA$34.89
+24.33%
17.33%CA$45.00CA$18.40n/a14
Aug ’27CA$25.37
CA$26.13
+2.98%
13.14%CA$32.00CA$18.40n/a15
Jul ’27CA$24.74
CA$23.89
-3.42%
13.66%CA$32.00CA$18.40n/a15
Jun ’27CA$21.95
CA$22.53
+2.63%
15.34%CA$32.00CA$18.00n/a15
May ’27CA$18.26
CA$22.53
+23.37%
16.65%CA$32.00CA$18.00n/a15
Apr ’27CA$18.83
CA$24.18
+28.41%
15.15%CA$33.00CA$19.00n/a15
Mar ’27CA$20.63
CA$25.54
+23.80%
12.49%CA$33.00CA$20.10n/a15
Feb ’27CA$18.85
CA$24.52
+30.07%
13.99%CA$32.00CA$17.80n/a16
Jan ’27CA$19.29
CA$24.24
+25.65%
14.35%CA$32.00CA$17.80n/a16
Dec ’26CA$19.09
CA$24.24
+26.96%
14.35%CA$32.00CA$17.80n/a16
Nov ’26CA$18.44
CA$24.29
+31.74%
13.99%CA$32.00CA$17.40n/a15
Oct ’26CA$17.71
CA$24.43
+37.93%
14.17%CA$32.00CA$17.40n/a15
Sep ’26CA$19.50
CA$25.36
+30.05%
12.50%CA$32.00CA$17.40CA$28.0615
Aug ’26CA$19.06
CA$25.43
+33.41%
13.52%CA$32.00CA$18.00CA$25.3716
Jul ’26CA$21.07
CA$23.74
+12.65%
16.38%CA$31.00CA$16.00CA$24.7417
Jun ’26CA$19.20
CA$23.74
+23.62%
16.38%CA$31.00CA$16.00CA$21.9517
May ’26CA$14.11
CA$22.36
+58.50%
22.11%CA$32.00CA$12.00CA$18.2617
Apr ’26CA$14.38
CA$24.31
+69.03%
19.67%CA$32.00CA$12.00CA$18.8317
Mar ’26CA$16.75
CA$25.25
+50.73%
18.12%CA$34.00CA$17.20CA$20.6317
Feb ’26CA$19.61
CA$27.36
+39.54%
14.84%CA$34.00CA$17.20CA$18.8517
Jan ’26CA$22.26
CA$27.42
+23.20%
15.23%CA$34.00CA$17.20CA$19.2917
Dec ’25CA$24.96
CA$26.32
+5.46%
13.68%CA$34.00CA$17.20CA$19.0918
Nov ’25CA$21.51
CA$23.66
+9.97%
17.00%CA$32.00CA$17.20CA$18.4418
Oct ’25CA$16.13
CA$22.53
+39.71%
22.71%CA$36.00CA$13.00CA$17.7117
Sep ’25CA$15.44
CA$22.68
+46.90%
22.70%CA$36.00CA$13.00CA$19.5017
CA$34.89
Fair Value
20.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/14 21:35
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/14 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Air Canada is covered by 31 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Cormark
David OcampoATB Cormark Historical (Cormark Securities)
Ahmad ShaathBeacon Securities Limited