Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock Overview
Engages in the aerospace and defense electronics industry. More details
| Snowflake Score | |
|---|---|
| Valuation | 2/6 |
| Future Growth | 3/6 |
| Past Performance | 0/6 |
| Financial Health | 4/6 |
| Dividends | 0/6 |
MRCY Community Fair Values
Create NarrativeSee what 26 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.
Analyst Price Targets
Mercury Systems, Inc. Competitors
Price History & Performance
| Historical stock prices | |
|---|---|
| Current Share Price | US$80.61 |
| 52 Week High | US$128.45 |
| 52 Week Low | US$65.04 |
| Beta | 0.98 |
| 1 Month Change | -27.46% |
| 3 Month Change | -30.47% |
| 1 Year Change | 11.59% |
| 3 Year Change | 112.52% |
| 5 Year Change | 75.93% |
| Change since IPO | 1,435.43% |
Recent News & Updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 03
Mercury Systems: A Value Trap Crushed By The Gravity Of Subcontracting
Summary Mercury Systems represents a value trap rather than a viable turnaround, constrained by persistent capital inefficiency and limited pricing power under fixed-price contracts. MRCY's dependence on a few defense giants, exposure to fixed-price contracts, and lack of a competitive moat make it highly vulnerable to margin compression. The base case DCF model indicates a 69% downside to $26.92 per share, supporting a SELL rating. Chronic supply chain issues, MOSA standards, and customer concentration amplify execution risks and threaten long-term shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 03
MRCY: Record Backlog And AI Partnership Will Shape Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have raised the price target for Mercury Systems to $115.78 from $106.22, citing updated models that incorporate stronger revenue assumptions, a higher future P/E multiple near 79.7x, and recent Street research pointing to solid bookings, backlog, and an improved long-term revenue outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems points to a generally constructive view on the stock, with most firms revisiting their models after quarterly results and updated long term revenue outlooks.Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Sep 03
Mercury Systems: A Value Trap Crushed By The Gravity Of Subcontracting
Summary Mercury Systems represents a value trap rather than a viable turnaround, constrained by persistent capital inefficiency and limited pricing power under fixed-price contracts. MRCY's dependence on a few defense giants, exposure to fixed-price contracts, and lack of a competitive moat make it highly vulnerable to margin compression. The base case DCF model indicates a 69% downside to $26.92 per share, supporting a SELL rating. Chronic supply chain issues, MOSA standards, and customer concentration amplify execution risks and threaten long-term shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Sep 03
MRCY: Record Backlog And AI Partnership Will Shape Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have raised the price target for Mercury Systems to $115.78 from $106.22, citing updated models that incorporate stronger revenue assumptions, a higher future P/E multiple near 79.7x, and recent Street research pointing to solid bookings, backlog, and an improved long-term revenue outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems points to a generally constructive view on the stock, with most firms revisiting their models after quarterly results and updated long term revenue outlooks.Narrative Update • Aug 13
MRCY: Future Margin Execution And Record Defense Bookings Will Shape Repricing Potential
Analysts now frame Mercury Systems' fair value at about $106.22, up from roughly $101.50. They point to recent price target increases that highlight its long track record in defense electronics, record bookings, and expectations for firmer margins and earnings power.
Narrative Update • Jul 13
MRCY: Elevated Expectations And Execution Risks Will Limit Future Share Price Upside
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Mercury Systems from $72.04 to $77.95 after updated models and higher price targets in recent research. This reflects adjusted expectations for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples.Narrative Update • Jun 14
MRCY: Future Margin Execution On Defense Bookings Will Limit Repricing Potential
Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Mercury Systems higher to $101.50 from $97.50, reflecting updated views on improving profit margins and booking trends that have supported recent increases in the Street price target, including Jefferies' move to $105. Analyst Commentary Recent research has focused on Mercury Systems' order trends and margin profile as key inputs into fair value estimates and price targets.
Narrative Update • May 31
MRCY: Contract Wins And Margin Gains Will Support Steadier Future Earnings Quality
Mercury Systems' analyst price targets have been raised by between $4 and $15, with analysts pointing to updated expectations for revenue growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems has centered on a series of price target revisions, with several bullish analysts lifting their targets by between US$4 and US$15, and one earlier cut of US$5 still in the mix.Narrative Update • May 13
MRCY: Space Program Execution Risk Will Constrain Future Share Price Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Mercury Systems to $72.04 from $62.00, citing updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions following recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems has included several price target revisions, both upward and downward, which signal a wide range of views on how the stock is currently valued.Narrative Update • Apr 29
MRCY: Execution Risk In Space Contracts Will Limit Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly adjusted their blended price target on Mercury Systems to reflect a mixed set of recent updates, with Jefferies trimming its view by a combined $15 while Truist, RBC Capital, and Canaccord issued increases of $7, $10, and $14 respectively, citing differing expectations around growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems reflects a split view, with some firms lifting their price targets while others are trimming theirs.Narrative Update • Apr 15
MRCY: Ongoing Execution Risk Will Constrain Defense Contract Upside
Mercury Systems' updated analyst price target shifted to $62 from about $64, as analysts adjusted their models for changes in projected growth, margins, discount rate and future P/E assumptions following a mix of recent target cuts and raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on Mercury Systems has been active, with a mix of higher and lower price targets reflecting different views on how much risk investors should price into the shares.Narrative Update • Mar 31
MRCY: Space And Weapons Contracts Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have adjusted their Mercury Systems price targets in a mixed but generally constructive way, with several firms raising targets by $6 to $14 while one reduced its view by $10. These changes reflect updated expectations around defense demand, aircraft production and the importance of careful stock selection in higher valuation defense tech names.Narrative Update • Mar 16
MRCY: Space And Strategic Weapons Contracts Will Drive Renewed Uptrend
Analysts have raised the implied fair value estimate for Mercury Systems to $97.50 from $86.00. This change reflects a series of recent Street price target revisions that indicate higher assumed revenue and profit margins, even though one firm reduced its target by $10.Narrative Update • Mar 02
MRCY: Higher Margins And Defense Recapitalization Efforts Will Support Stronger Earnings Quality
Analysts have made modest adjustments to their price targets on Mercury Systems, with shifts such as Jefferies trimming its view by $10 while others raised theirs by $6 to $14. These changes reflect updated expectations around margins, growth and future P/E assumptions rather than a change to the $120 fair value in our framework.Narrative Update • Feb 16
MRCY: Limited Defense Catalysts And Execution Risk Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have raised their blended price target for Mercury Systems from about $55 to roughly $63.70. They cite updated assumptions regarding revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple, which reflect recent target changes from firms that have both increased and decreased their views on the stock.Narrative Update • Feb 02
MRCY: Elevated Sector Pricing And One Off Revenue Timing Will Pressure Returns
Analysts raised their price target on Mercury Systems by about $2.50, supported by slightly higher fair value estimates, a modestly lower discount rate, and small upward adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, while keeping future P/E expectations broadly stable. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mercury Systems highlights a mix of optimism around fair value and caution around how that value might be realized.Narrative Update • Jan 19
MRCY: Higher Margins And Space Contracts Will Support Stronger Earnings Quality
Narrative Update Analysts have raised their implied fair value range for Mercury Systems from about $80 to roughly $120 per share, citing higher modeled revenue, improved profit margins, and sector research indicating supportive demand trends in aerospace and defense. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are nudging their expectations higher for Mercury Systems, with recent price target revisions pointing to increased confidence in both execution and earnings quality.Analysis Article • Jan 14
Mercury Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRCY) 33% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues
Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33% share price jump in the...Narrative Update • Jan 05
MRCY: Accelerated High Margin Revenue Will Likely Inflate Near Term Expectations
Analysts have raised their price targets on Mercury Systems to a range of US$95 to US$100, citing Q3 results that benefited from about US$20m of accelerated, high margin revenue, a 1.1x book to bill, minimal perceived shutdown risk, and solid demand trends across aircraft production and aftermarket activity. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mercury Systems has focused on the quality of Q3 earnings, the sustainability of current margins, and how exposed the business might be to macro and government related risks.Narrative Update • Dec 15
MRCY: Elevated Expectations Around Accelerated Revenue Will Likely Pressure Shares
Analysts have raised their price target on Mercury Systems significantly, from about $40 to roughly $53 per share. They cite stronger than expected Q3 execution, higher margin contributions from accelerated revenue, and improving aerospace and defense demand that supports higher growth and profitability assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 30
MRCY: Share Repurchase And Q3 Strength Will Drive Renewed Uptrend
Analysts have raised their average price target for Mercury Systems. Recent updates reflect an increase from $71 to a range up to $100 per share.Narrative Update • Nov 16
MRCY: Future Demand Strength In Defense And Aerospace Will Drive Share Gains
Mercury Systems’ analyst price target has increased significantly from $81.13 to $86.00. Analysts point to recent operational outperformance, improved profit margins, and positive demand trends as supporting factors for the higher valuation.Analysis Article • Nov 07
The Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ), an important milestone...Narrative Update • Nov 01
MRCY: Future Demand From Aerospace And Defense Will Shape Fair Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems from $77.50 to $81.13, citing improving sentiment in the aerospace and defense sector, increased aftermarket demand, and model updates that reflect continued operational progress. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research has highlighted both optimism and caution regarding Mercury Systems' near-term performance and long-term prospects.Narrative Update • Oct 17
US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation
Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems significantly, increasing it from $72.63 to $77.50. They cite improved revenue stability, higher profit margin forecasts, and continued industry optimism surrounding aerospace and defense suppliers.Narrative Update • Oct 03
US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation
Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems from $65.43 to $72.63. They cite improved revenue outlook and recent strong quarterly performance as key drivers for their increased optimism.Narrative Update • Sep 04
US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation
Analysts highlight a Q4 earnings beat driven by a one-time revenue pull-forward and a surge in bookings, but maintain a conservative long-term outlook and reiterate their Buy stance, leaving the price target unchanged at $65.43. Analyst Commentary Q4 earnings significantly exceeded expectations due to a $30M revenue pull-forward.
New Narrative • Mar 22
Transition To Production Will Strengthen Competitive Edge In Defense Electronics
Increased production capacity and competitive wins, like the defense satellite program, position Mercury Systems for potential long-term revenue and market share growth.Seeking Alpha • Jan 16
Rugged Tech, Fragile Finances: Mercury's Fight For Stability
Summary Mercury Systems specializes in ruggedized electronics for defense contractors, focusing on integrating off-the-shelf components to withstand extreme environments. The company faces declining R&D investments, high inventory levels, and operational inefficiencies, leading to stalled revenues, reduced profitability, and volatile cash flow. Management is focusing on streamlining operations, reducing working capital, and shifting the product mix toward higher-margin production contracts. Mercury boasts a record $1.3 billion backlog and improving supply chain conditions, providing optimism for future free cash flow and margin expansion. While management projects recovery and growth in fiscal 2025, risks remain from potential supply chain disruptions, labor market instability, and operational execution. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 11
Mercury Systems Stock: Still A Hold After 25% Post-Earnings Surge
Summary Mercury Systems reported strong Q1 FY25 earnings, beating analyst estimates, leading to a 25% stock gain, and surpassing my previous $41.05 price target. Despite significant earnings improvement due to restructuring, Mercury Systems still faces challenges with margin recovery, revenue growth, and a $591.5 million credit facility that needs to be paid off. The company’s backlog signals product demand, but FY25 sales are expected to be flat with notable EBITDA and free cash flow improvements. Given the current price levels and financial uncertainties, I maintain a hold rating for Mercury Systems, seeing no compelling near-term upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaShareholder Returns
| MRCY | US Aerospace & Defense | US Market | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | -2.2% | -2.9% | -0.9% |
| 1Y | 11.6% | 8.7% | 14.2% |
Return vs Industry: MRCY exceeded the US Aerospace & Defense industry which returned 8.7% over the past year.
Return vs Market: MRCY underperformed the US Market which returned 14.2% over the past year.
Price Volatility
| MRCY volatility | |
|---|---|
| MRCY Average Weekly Movement | 9.0% |
| Aerospace & Defense Industry Average Movement | 8.9% |
| Market Average Movement | 6.9% |
| 10% most volatile stocks in US Market | 15.3% |
| 10% least volatile stocks in US Market | 2.9% |
Stable Share Price: MRCY has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.
Volatility Over Time: MRCY's weekly volatility (9%) has been stable over the past year.
About the Company
| Founded | Employees | CEO | Website |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | 2,102 | Bill Ballhaus | www.mrcy.com |
Mercury Systems, Inc., engages in the aerospace and defense electronics industry. The company manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies. It offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devices; modules and sub-assemblies, such as embedded processing boards, switched fabrics and boards, digital receivers, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, and transceivers, as well as graphics and video; and integrated subsystems.
Mercury Systems, Inc. Fundamentals Summary
| MRCY fundamental statistics | |
|---|---|
| Market cap | US$4.85b |
| Earnings (TTM) | -US$29.67m |
| Revenue (TTM) | US$983.62m |
4.9x
P/S Ratio-163.4x
P/E RatioIs MRCY overvalued?
See Fair Value and valuation analysisEarnings & Revenue
| MRCY income statement (TTM) | |
|---|---|
| Revenue | US$983.62m |
| Cost of Revenue | US$702.46m |
| Gross Profit | US$281.17m |
| Other Expenses | US$310.84m |
| Earnings | -US$29.67m |
Last Reported Earnings
Jul 03, 2026
Next Earnings Date
n/a
| Earnings per share (EPS) | -0.49 |
| Gross Margin | 28.58% |
| Net Profit Margin | -3.02% |
| Debt/Equity Ratio | 29.6% |
How did MRCY perform over the long term?
See historical performance and comparisonCompany Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/13 12:54 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/07/03 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/07/03 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Mercury Systems, Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Peter Arment | Baird |
| Christopher Rieger | Berenberg |
| Austin Moeller | Canaccord Genuity |