COMPASS Pathways Future Growth
Future criteria checks 2/6
COMPASS Pathways is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 56.4% and 67.5% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 59.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -129% in 3 years.
Key information
56.4%
Earnings growth rate
59.22%
EPS growth rate
| Biotechs earnings growth | 28.9% |
| Revenue growth rate | 67.5% |
| Future return on equity | -128.99% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 11 Sep 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • Aug 25
Compass Pathways: Still A Buy, But The Exit Just Got Complicated
Summary COMPASS Pathways remains a Buy, but Eli Lilly’s acquisition of AtaiBeckley narrows CMPS’s long-term strategic options. COMP360’s first-mover advantage in treatment-resistant depression is real but fragile, with approval targeted for H1 2027 and launch timelines described as fluid. BPL-003’s short-duration sessions may offer superior site economics versus CMPS’s 6-hour COMP360 protocol, raising competitive risks. CMPS holds $433M cash, sufficient into 2028, but commercialization could require additional capital, potentially leading to dilution or debt. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Aug 20
CMPS: Phase 3 Durability And 2027 Launch Timeline Will Drive Upside
Analysts have adjusted the fair value estimate for COMPASS Pathways to $46.19 from $52.55, reflecting updated assumptions on the discount rate, long term margin profile, and a significantly higher future P/E multiple in light of recent price target changes and supportive research commentary across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on COMPASS Pathways centers on the progress of COMP360 in treatment resistant depression, shifting regulatory signals, and the potential size and timing of a commercial opportunity.
Narrative Update • Aug 06
CMPS: Phase 3 Durability And FDA Openness Balance Competitive And Execution Risks
Analysts now set the primary fair value estimate for COMPASS Pathways at $13, down from $17. This change reflects updated views on COMP360's commercial headroom compared with existing therapies, a somewhat higher discount rate, and tempered expectations for future P/E multiples, despite supportive Phase 3 data and a generally constructive regulatory backdrop for psychedelics.Narrative Update • Jul 23
CMPS: Phase 3 Durability And Favorable FDA Stance Will Drive Upside
Analysts have raised the fair value estimate for Compass Pathways stock to $17.00 from $8.00, citing stronger confidence in COMP360's durable efficacy profile, supportive recent Phase 3 data, and a regulatory backdrop that they view as increasingly receptive to psychedelic treatments. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Compass Pathways highlights a mix of enthusiasm around COMP360's Phase 3 data and a more cautious undercurrent that focuses on execution, valuation, and regulatory timing.
Narrative Update • Jul 08
CMPS: Phase 3 Durability Data Will Underpin Potential 2027 Launch Upside
The analyst price target for Compass Pathways has been raised to $24.47 from $21.92. Analysts point to supportive 26-week COMP360 durability data, a consistent safety profile, and a clearer path toward a potential 2027 approval and commercial launch as key reasons for the updated view.New Narrative • Apr 02
Phase III Progress And PTSD Expansion Will Reshape Long Term Psychedelic Mental Health Treatment
Catalysts About COMPASS Pathways COMPASS Pathways is a mental health company developing COMP360 psilocybin treatment for conditions such as treatment resistant depression and PTSD. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?New Narrative • Mar 19
Phase III Completion And PTSD Expansion Will Support A Durable Mental Health Franchise
Catalysts About COMPASS Pathways COMPASS Pathways is a mental health company developing COMP360 psilocybin treatment for conditions such as treatment resistant depression and PTSD. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?New Narrative • Mar 04
Phase III Trial Dependence Will Dominate Near Term While Long Term Potential Remains
Catalysts About COMPASS Pathways COMPASS Pathways is a mental health company developing COMP360, a psilocybin-based treatment for conditions such as treatment resistant depression and PTSD. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Analysis Article • Dec 08
Is COMPASS Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) Weighed On By Its Debt Load?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Aug 07
Is COMPASS Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) Using Debt Sensibly?
NasdaqGS:CMPS 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore COMPASS Pathways's Fair Values from the Community and select...Seeking Alpha • Feb 28
Compass Pathways: Betting On The Future Of Psilocybin Therapy
Summary Compass Pathways is positioned to leverage regulatory tailwinds and compelling clinical data, despite broader skepticism and high cash burn in the psychedelic biotech sector. The company has a financial cushion with cash reserves of $165.1 million, providing 4-6 quarters of runway before needing additional capital. COMP360 shows promise in treating treatment-resistant depression and PTSD, with significant clinical trial results and potential long-term economic benefits. Regulatory hurdles and scientific doubts remain, but if Compass achieves FDA approval, its current market valuation could be deeply discounted relative to its long-term potential. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 04
Does COMPASS Pathways (NASDAQ:CMPS) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Seeking Alpha • Nov 01
Compass Pathways: Minor Delay Of COMP360 Data Brings About Buy Opportunity
Summary Compass Pathways plc obtained positive results from phase 2b study using COMP360 for treatment resistant depression patients; Primary endpoint met with statistically significant p-value of p<0.001. Top-line results from the phase 3 COMP005 study, using COMP360 for treatment-resistant depression patients, expected in Q2 of 2025. The global treatment-resistant depression treatment market size is projected to grow to $4 billion by 2033. Other indications being explored using COMP360 as a synthetic psilocybin are anorexia nervosa and post-traumatic stress disorder. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 19
Compass Pathways: Sector-Wide Reality Check Needed Post FDA Lykos MDMA Decision
Summary The psychedelics sector has suffered a big blow, with the US FDA knocking back a New Drug Application for MDMA-assisted therapy. The potential for a negative FDA decision had been well-flagged by an advisory committee report in June, so the market may have already priced in the downside. Arguments that the negative FDA decision on MDMA may actually be good news for Compass Pathways plc and peers are not persuasive. The FDA decision is not the end of the road for the psychedelics sector, but Compass Pathways and peers face serious challenges regarding regulatory approval, access to capital and commercialization. The group took action to strengthen its balance sheet in 2023, but my cash burn analysis indicates that further capital injections will be needed before the end of 2025. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jul 08
Compass Pathways: Buy It For Its Promising Psychedelic Mental Health Therapies
Summary COMPASS Pathways' lead drug, COMP360, is a synthetic psilocybin in Phase 3 trials for TRD and Phase 2 for PTSD and AN. The company addresses unmet mental health needs through psychedelic therapies. COMP360 showed promising results in Phase 2 trials for PTSD, with significant improvements in depression symptoms. Industry-wide regulatory uncertainties persist, highlighted by the FDA's recent decision against MDMA for PTSD. I believe CMPS is undervalued. Its substantial aggregate TAM and strategic collaborations bode well for potential FDA approval and commercialization. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 23
Psychedelics Closer To Commercialization; Compass Far And Away The Leader
Summary Regulatory risk in the psychedelic industry is decreasing, which is a positive sign for investors. Institutional investors are becoming more willing to invest in leading psychedelic companies through private placements. Analyst Alex Carchidi discusses Compass, Cybin, Atai, and MindMed seeing improvements in their balance sheets and clinical trial data. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Apr 25
COMPASS Pathways: Will MDMA-Assisted Therapy Pave The Way Or Slam The Door Shut?
Summary The US FDA is due to make a decision regarding MDMA-assisted therapy in August 2024 – this will be a critical event for the future of COMPASS Pathways. COMPASS Pathways’ share price has exhibited extreme volatility over the last year, highlighting the speculative nature of investing in the psychedelics sector. COMPASS Pathways has experienced delays with its COMP 005 clinical trial, but is confident that its COMP360 New Drug Application timeline remains unchanged. The departure of the company’s co-founders came as a surprise, and follows on from the sudden exit of the group’s CFO in late 2023. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 08
Compass Pathways: Psilocybin Developer A Potentially Intriguing, Contrarian Play
Summary Compass Pathways plc, a biotech company based in London, is developing a psilocybin-based therapy for CNS disorders. The company's shares declined by over 80% in 2022 due to safety concerns and regulatory hurdles. Psilocybin is classified as a Schedule I substance in the U.S., posing challenges for commercial marketing in the country. Compass' COMP-360 therapy involves sessions with therapists and digital support, and has met efficacy endpoints in a Phase 2 study. There are multiple reasons to doubt the therapy can be approved, and Compass has a high cash burn, but Phase 3 data due this year may support an approval push, if positive. An interesting contrarian play, for those with a higher appetite for risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 191 | -169 | -164 | -148 | 12 |
| 12/31/2027 | 40 | -252 | -221 | -170 | 15 |
| 12/31/2026 | N/A | -299 | -208 | -182 | 14 |
| 6/30/2026 | N/A | -394 | -161 | -161 | N/A |
| 3/31/2026 | N/A | -179 | -160 | -160 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | N/A | -288 | -157 | -157 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | N/A | -237 | -161 | -161 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | N/A | -138 | -148 | -148 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | N/A | -138 | -144 | -144 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | N/A | -155 | -119 | -119 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | N/A | -144 | -105 | -105 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | N/A | -139 | -100 | -100 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | N/A | -129 | -91 | -90 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | N/A | -118 | -97 | -97 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | N/A | -117 | -115 | -115 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | N/A | -102 | -117 | -117 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | N/A | -95 | -111 | -110 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | N/A | -92 | -106 | -105 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | N/A | -86 | -83 | -83 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | N/A | -84 | -78 | -77 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | N/A | -80 | -77 | -77 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | N/A | -72 | -68 | -68 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | N/A | -65 | -62 | -62 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | N/A | -66 | -62 | -62 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | N/A | -64 | -51 | -51 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | N/A | -60 | -42 | -41 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | N/A | -49 | -31 | -31 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | N/A | -38 | -22 | -22 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | N/A | -25 | N/A | -19 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | N/A | -20 | N/A | -18 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CMPS is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Earnings vs Market: CMPS is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
High Growth Earnings: CMPS is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CMPS's revenue (67.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (13.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CMPS's revenue (67.5% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: CMPS is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/11 04:44 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
COMPASS Pathways plc is covered by 22 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Madison Wynne El-Saadi | B. Riley Securities, Inc. |
| Thomas Shrader | BTIG |
| Sumant Satchidanand Kulkarni | Canaccord Genuity |