Lumentum Holdings Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Lumentum Holdings's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -33.1%, while the Communications industry saw earnings declining at 0.3% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 1.4% per year. Lumentum Holdings's return on equity is 14.8%, and it has net margins of 17.6%.
Key information
-33.14%
Earnings growth rate
-32.13%
EPS growth rate
| Communications Industry Growth | 31.77% |
| Revenue growth rate | 1.38% |
| Return on equity | 14.79% |
| Net Margin | 17.64% |
| Last Earnings Update | 28 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jul 07
LITE: AI Data Center Demand And CPO Timing Will Shape Returns
Analysts have raised their price target on Lumentum Holdings to $802.35 from $433.09, reflecting updated views that consider the potential for higher revenue and stronger profit margins, along with a lower assumed future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Lumentum Holdings points to a split view, with some firms highlighting opportunities around optical demand and artificial intelligence infrastructure, while others flag risks tied to valuation, execution, and the timing of industry adoption cycles.Seeking Alpha • Jul 04
Lumentum: The Market Is Finally Blinking, And It Could Get Worse
Summary Lumentum investors have benefited from the gold rush in AI optical networking plays. Despite a steep 30% pullback from May highs, it's still up 700% over the past year. Gross margins have approached 50%, and free cash flow margins are projected to inflect from 6% to 25% next year, underscoring robust operating leverage. LITE’s valuation has corrected to 46x forward earnings from 80x but remains significantly above its five-year average. Lower but still frothy, to say the least. The AI networking narrative has not imploded, but with the one-way gravy train trade in this thematic opportunity, investors appear to have taken it way too far. LITE's recent price action suggests that much patience is still necessary. As we allow the digestion to take place, a more appealing entry point may subsequently emerge. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jun 23
LITE: Nvidia Partnership And New Capacity Expansion Will Support AI Optics Demand
Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has been raised to about $1,111 from roughly $1,105 as analysts point to a more supportive AI data center demand backdrop and a shift toward optical sector P/E multiples that align more closely with peers. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage on Lumentum Holdings centers on how the stock is priced relative to peers in the optical sector, the AI data center demand backdrop, and expectations for co-packaged optics adoption.Analysis Article • Jun 18
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Stock Could Be 82.9% Undervalued If Turnaround Hopes Hold
Lumentum Holdings (LITE) has recently drawn investor attention after a period where the stock is up about 1.9% over the past week but down roughly 1.7% over the past month. See our latest analysis for Lumentum Holdings. Zooming out, Lumentum Holdings’ recent 7 day share price gain sits against a 90 day share price return of 12.67% and a very large 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests that momentum has been building over time as investors reassess its growth prospects and risk...
Narrative Update • Jun 07
LITE: Nvidia Partnership And AI Photonics Capacity Expansion Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their blended price target on Lumentum to $1,400 from $1,033.69, citing higher modeled revenue growth and a modestly richer future P/E as expectations for AI-driven optical demand build across the sector. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Lumentum points to a cluster of higher price targets and constructive commentary tied to AI related optical demand, data center spending and peer comparisons within the broader optical group.
New Narrative • Jun 03
Lumentum: An AI-Fueled Recovery That Has Not Yet Earned Its $74 Billion Tag
I. Industry and Business Model Analysis Lumentum is a photonics manufacturer — it designs and produces the lasers, optical chips, modules, and subsystems that move data through fiber-optic networks.Narrative Update • May 24
LITE: Nvidia Commitments And New U.S. Capacity Will Drive AI Optics Upside
Analysts lifted Lumentum's implied fair value by about $200 to $1,104.68, citing higher assumed revenue growth and profit margins, along with a lower future P/E and a slightly reduced discount rate reflected in recent across the Street price target increases. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Lumentum reflect a clear skew toward higher valuation frameworks, with multiple firms lifting price targets and revisiting their assumptions on revenue, margins, and end market demand.Narrative Update • May 06
LITE: Nvidia Commitments And New U.S. Capacity Will Shape AI Optics Prospects
The analyst price target for Lumentum Holdings has been raised by $131.54. Analysts attribute this change to higher fair value estimates, modestly adjusted discount rates, and stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E multiples following a series of positive research updates across the Street.Narrative Update • Apr 20
LITE: Nvidia Capacity Commitments Will Test AI Optics Execution Risk
The analyst fair value estimate for Lumentum has shifted from $655.55 to $773.35. This change reflects higher modeled revenue growth and profit margins, as analysts factor in rising AI driven optical demand and recent multi firm price target increases tied to Nvidia related commitments and broader industry capacity expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 06
LITE: Nvidia Capacity Deal And AI Optics Demand Will Drive Future Upside
The updated analyst price target for Lumentum rises from $900 to about $1,034 per share, with analysts pointing to stronger modeled revenue growth, higher profit margin assumptions linked to AI related optical demand, and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around Lumentum Holdings centers on how AI driven optical demand, new customer commitments, and updated industry forecasts are feeding into higher price targets and refreshed views on risk and reward.Narrative Update • Mar 23
LITE: AI Infrastructure Optics And Nvidia Capacity Commitments Will Drive Future Upside
Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Lumentum to $900, reflecting a series of sharply higher Street price targets and updated assumptions for stronger revenue growth, wider profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple tied to expanding AI infrastructure demand and long term optical supply commitments. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Lumentum points to a clear shift in tone from the Street, with a cluster of price target revisions and fresh coverage reflecting renewed attention on the company’s role in AI driven optical demand.Narrative Update • Mar 09
LITE: AI Optics Commitments And Nvidia Backing Will Test Execution
Our fair value estimate for Lumentum has been raised from $571.45 to $655.55, reflecting analysts' higher price targets that are tied to increased earnings power expectations and long term purchase commitments from large customers in advanced optical components. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Lumentum points to a cluster of higher price targets and fresh long term commitments from large customers, especially in advanced optical components tied to AI data centers.Narrative Update • Feb 22
LITE: AI Optics Hype Will Test Rich P E On Execution Risks
Lumentum's updated analyst price target moves to $645 from $525, with analysts pointing to higher assumed revenue growth of 51.47%, a profit margin of 25.14%, and a P/E of 30.38 in their refreshed models. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Lumentum has become more active, with a series of price target increases clustered over the past few months and one high profile caution flag from JPMorgan.Narrative Update • Feb 08
LITE: AI Optics Hype Will Likely Outpace Real Data Center Demand
Analysts have lifted their price targets and fair value estimates for Lumentum, with one set of assumptions now pointing to fair value of about $433.09. This reflects updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E after a series of recent target hikes and upgrades across the Street.Analysis Article • Feb 06
After Leaping 27% Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) Shares Are Not Flying Under The Radar
Lumentum Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:LITE ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month...Narrative Update • Jan 25
LITE: AI Data Center Optics Will Shape Future Multiple With Execution Risks
Analysts have raised their price targets on Lumentum from roughly $180 to $210 in several recent reports, citing stronger assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E. Together, these factors support a higher fair value estimate now modeled around $348 per share, up from about $255.Narrative Update • Jan 10
LITE: AI Connectivity Euphoria Will Likely Outrun Realistic Earnings Delivery
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Lumentum Holdings to $140.00 from $100.15, citing higher assumed revenue growth and profit margins, a slightly lower discount rate, and a reduced future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Lumentum points to strong enthusiasm around its role in optical connectivity for AI and cloud infrastructure, but there are also clear notes of caution that are worth your attention.Narrative Update • Dec 22
LITE: AI Data Center Optics And Switch Demand Will Drive Balanced Outlook
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Lumentum Holdings from $165.00 to $380.00, citing stronger than expected AI driven data center optics demand, accelerating optical circuit switch adoption tied to Google TPU ramps, and improved long term growth visibility despite a slightly lower projected profit margin. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts remain largely constructive on Lumentum, framing the latest round of price target increases as a response to a strengthening AI infrastructure cycle and the company’s improving execution against its data center roadmap.Analysis Article • Dec 16
Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s (NASDAQ:LITE) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 44% Share Price Bounce
Despite an already strong run, Lumentum Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:LITE ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 44...Narrative Update • Dec 08
LITE: AI Optical Demand Will Drive Future Multiple But Limit Near-Term Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target on Lumentum Holdings, raising it from roughly $230 to about $255 per share, as they grow more confident that surging AI driven demand for data center optics and optical circuit switches will support faster revenue growth and a higher future earnings multiple, despite modestly lower margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a broadly constructive outlook on Lumentum, with a notable cluster of target price increases reflecting growing confidence in the durability of AI driven optical demand and the company’s execution on its product roadmap.Narrative Update • Nov 24
LITE: Surging AI Demand Will Expose Shares To Near-Term Downside Risk
The analyst price target for Lumentum Holdings has been raised from $217.75 to $231.33. Analysts cite stronger revenue growth trends, improving profit margins, and heightened demand for the company's optical and laser technologies as contributing factors, driven by AI and data center market expansion.Analysis Article • Nov 12
Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ:LITE) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of
Unsurprisingly, Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:LITE ) stock price was strong on the back of its healthy earnings...Narrative Update • Nov 08
LITE: Near-Term AI Demand Surge Will Risk Disappointment Amid Tight Margins
The analyst price target for Lumentum Holdings has been significantly raised from $163.85 to $217.75 per share. This reflects analyst confidence in robust demand for AI-driven optical connectivity, improved margins, and growth prospects following the company's recent earnings outperformance and strengthened guidance.Narrative Update • Oct 25
Optical Demand Will Strengthen Cloud And AI Expansion Amid Rising Industry Momentum
Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has increased significantly from $146.16 to $163.85 per share, as analysts cite robust demand for datacom components, positive earnings momentum, and ongoing AI-driven infrastructure investment in raising their outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst updates on Lumentum Holdings highlight a mix of optimism and caution in reaction to strong business momentum and evolving industry dynamics.Narrative Update • Oct 10
Advanced Optical Demand Will Drive Cloud And AI Markets
Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has increased modestly to $146 from $144. Analysts point to strong demand for datacom components, supply constraints, and momentum in AI-driven optical networking as key drivers behind the upward revision.Analysis Article • Oct 02
Revenues Tell The Story For Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE) As Its Stock Soars 29%
Despite an already strong run, Lumentum Holdings Inc. ( NASDAQ:LITE ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 29...Narrative Update • Sep 24
Advanced Optical Demand Will Drive Cloud And AI Markets
Lumentum Holdings' analyst price target has been raised as strong near-term AI datacenter demand for EML lasers, favorable product mix, and robust order growth drive upward guidance and margin strength, offset by some valuation concerns, with fair value now seen at $143.79. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight strong near-term demand momentum, particularly for 200G EML lasers in AI-driven data center infrastructure, with supply ramping to meet significant order growth.Narrative Update • Sep 09
Advanced Optical Demand Will Drive Cloud And AI Markets
Upward revisions to Lumentum’s price target reflect strong Q4 results, robust datacom and AI-driven demand, and greater business resilience beyond Cloud, though some caution that recent gains may already be reflected in valuations; consensus fair value has nudged up from $138.26 to $139.84. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite Lumentum’s very strong Q4 results and above-consensus Q1 guidance, powered by robust demand for datacom components and record EML shipments, fueled further by AI infrastructure investments.Narrative Update • Aug 15
Advanced Optical Demand Will Drive Cloud And AI Markets
Analysts remain optimistic on Lumentum Holdings due to strong Q4 results, robust guidance, and accelerating AI and cloud infrastructure demand, though some express valuation concerns after recent stock gains; consequently, the consensus price target remains unchanged at $135.59. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite very strong Q4 results and robust guidance, driven by strength in datacom components (especially EMLs and transceivers) and record Cloud module growth, benefiting from accelerated AI infrastructure spending and heightened demand from hyperscalers.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Lumentum Holdings makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar 26 | 2,488 | 439 | 355 | 329 |
| 27 Dec 25 | 2,105 | 252 | 369 | 314 |
| 27 Sep 25 | 1,842 | 113 | 357 | 308 |
| 28 Jun 25 | 1,645 | 26 | 348 | 301 |
| 29 Mar 25 | 1,473 | -440 | 339 | 298 |
| 28 Dec 24 | 1,414 | -523 | 309 | 299 |
| 28 Sep 24 | 1,379 | -561 | 307 | 303 |
| 29 Jun 24 | 1,359 | -546 | 301 | 302 |
| 30 Mar 24 | 1,422 | -354 | 286 | 302 |
| 30 Dec 23 | 1,439 | -266 | 305 | 298 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 1,578 | -199 | 293 | 296 |
| 01 Jul 23 | 1,767 | -132 | 319 | 308 |
| 01 Apr 23 | 1,818 | -37 | 330 | 279 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 1,830 | 29 | 293 | 262 |
| 01 Oct 22 | 1,771 | 117 | 299 | 239 |
| 02 Jul 22 | 1,713 | 199 | 257 | 221 |
| 02 Apr 22 | 1,683 | 186 | 254 | 218 |
| 01 Jan 22 | 1,707 | 385 | 256 | 219 |
| 02 Oct 21 | 1,739 | 412 | 248 | 218 |
| 03 Jul 21 | 1,743 | 397 | 241 | 215 |
| 03 Apr 21 | 1,719 | 371 | 229 | 209 |
| 26 Dec 20 | 1,702 | 189 | 225 | 201 |
| 26 Sep 20 | 1,681 | 155 | 226 | 199 |
| 27 Jun 20 | 1,679 | 136 | 235 | 199 |
| 28 Mar 20 | 1,715 | 114 | 212 | 199 |
| 28 Dec 19 | 1,745 | -3 | 228 | 208 |
| 28 Sep 19 | 1,661 | -36 | 206 | 200 |
| 29 Jun 19 | 1,565 | -38 | 182 | 185 |
| 30 Mar 19 | 1,462 | 20 | 179 | 174 |
| 29 Dec 18 | 1,328 | 97 | 135 | 154 |
| 29 Sep 18 | 1,359 | 281 | 130 | 155 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 1,248 | 242 | 128 | 157 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 1,169 | 154 | 122 | 154 |
| 30 Dec 17 | 1,126 | 95 | 116 | 153 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 987 | -93 | 112 | 148 |
| 01 Jul 17 | 1,002 | -103 | 110 | 148 |
| 01 Apr 17 | 1,021 | -34 | 114 | 149 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 995 | 14 | 114 | 147 |
| 01 Oct 16 | 949 | 3 | 108 | 144 |
| 02 Jul 16 | 903 | -3 | 117 | 141 |
| 02 Apr 16 | 870 | -33 | 126 | 140 |
| 26 Dec 15 | 839 | -13 | 130 | 140 |
| 26 Sep 15 | 831 | -18 | 135 | 140 |
Quality Earnings: LITE has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: LITE became profitable in the past.
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: LITE's earnings have declined by 33.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: LITE has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: LITE has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Communications industry (11.5%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: LITE's Return on Equity (14.8%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/07/08 03:59 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/07/08 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/28 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is covered by 31 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Skye Chen | Aletheia Analyst Network Limited |
| Thomas O'Malley | Barclays |
| Karl Ackerman | BNP Paribas |