Firefly Aerospace Inc.

NasdaqGM:FLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.0b

Firefly Aerospace Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

Firefly Aerospace is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 55.5% and 35.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 65.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -19.6% in 3 years.

Key information

55.5%

Earnings growth rate

65.94%

EPS growth rate

Aerospace & Defense earnings growth17.3%
Revenue growth rate35.1%
Future return on equity-19.57%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated13 Jul 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Jul 11

Firefly Aerospace: Potential Next Space Winner To Buy

Summary Firefly Aerospace is expanding into an end-to-end space transportation provider, targeting LEO to cislunar missions with launchers, landers, and transfer vehicles. I raise my price target to $51.68, reflecting high-growth prospects, and believe FLY is undervalued; the stock remains a buy despite near-term losses. FLY’s contract momentum is robust, but margin growth hinges on ramping production cadence and disciplined cost management, especially as many contracts currently lack scale. Break-even on operating cash flow is expected by 2028, but execution risk on production ramp-up and aerospace/defense sector valuations remains a key watch item. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Jul 10

FLY: NASA Moon And Mars Contracts Will Drive Future Upside

Analysts have raised their price target for Firefly Aerospace to $35.00 from $27.00, citing updates in discount rate assumptions, revised revenue growth expectations, higher projected profit margins, and a lower future P/E estimate as key drivers of the change. What’s in the News for Firefly Aerospace Firefly Aerospace secured a US$144 million NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract to use its Blue Ghost lunar lander for a rapid 2028 Moon mission, delivering three NASA science instruments to the lunar near side.
Narrative Update • Jun 26

FLY: MoonFall Contract Will Anchor Future Lunar And Defense Upside

Analysts have adjusted their price target for Firefly Aerospace from $37.00 to $48.22. This reflects updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E assumptions.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGM:FLY - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20281,097-78-1021796
12/31/2027705-192-199-1288
12/31/2026441-337-313-2548
3/31/2026185-358-257-211N/A
12/31/2025160-334-238-205N/A
9/30/2025111-396-201-178N/A
6/30/2025103-302-184-161N/A
3/31/2025108-280-184-154N/A
12/31/202461-266-190-158N/A
12/31/202355-156-171-93N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FLY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: FLY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: FLY is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FLY's revenue (35.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (12.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FLY's revenue (35.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FLY is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/17 23:43
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/17 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Michael CrawfordB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Colin CanfieldCantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Xin YuDeutsche Bank