Firefly Aerospace Inc.

NasdaqGM:FLY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.3b

Firefly Aerospace Valuation

Is FLY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FLY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

US$36.53
Fair Value
23.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: FLY ($28.05) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($36.53)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FLY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FLY?

Key metric: As FLY is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for FLY. This is calculated by dividing FLY's market cap by their current revenue.
What is FLY's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio40x
SalesUS$102.81m
Market CapUS$4.34b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does FLY's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for FLY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.7x
SPR Spirit AeroSystems Holdings
0.7x13.97%US$4.5b
MRCY Mercury Systems
5.1x6.03%US$4.7b
HXL Hexcel
2.6x9.04%US$5.0b
VSEC VSE
2.6x11.42%US$3.3b
FLY Firefly Aerospace
40x44.82%US$4.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: FLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (40x) compared to the peer average (2.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does FLY's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SPR Spirit AeroSystems Holdings
0.7x13.97%US$4.53b
VVX V2X
0.4x4.53%US$1.83b
LLAP Terran Orbital
0.4x29.47%US$51.22m
SIF SIFCO Industries
0.5xn/aUS$45.43m
FLY 40.0xIndustry Avg. 3.1xNo. of Companies14PS03.67.210.814.418+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: FLY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (40x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FLY's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FLY PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio40x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FLY's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

US$52
Fair Value
46.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/10/16 13:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/10/16 00:00
Earnings2025/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Firefly Aerospace Inc. is covered by 9 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Colin CanfieldCantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Xin YuDeutsche Bank
Xin YuDeutsche Bank